Saturday, January 31, 2015

(T101) Time Series Analysis and Forecasting Case study

Case Study: T101

Business objective:

Analyze the historical stock prices. Build a model on the stock prices. Forecast the future values of the stock using the time series model

Data

Download 3 years original weekly stock price for any stock.  Here is a link to pull Google stock price data
Below is the link for google last one year weekly stock prices data.

Analysis Approach

·         Use Adj Close as stock price
·         Clean the data, if required
·         Use ARIMA technique
·         Use 90% of data for model building and 10% for validation
·         Final observations and inferences
·         Documentation of the approach, codes and results

Discussion forum

·         Facebook:
·         Blog :
·         Slide share

References:

·         Chapter-12: Time Series Analysis and Forecasting  from the book Practical Business Analytics Using SAS: A Hands-on Guide http://www.amazon.com/Practical-Business-Analytics-Using-Hands/dp/1484200446

·         Case study id: Case Study: T101 

Thursday, January 29, 2015

(L101)Predictive Modeling Case Study:Customer retention strategy building using Predictive modeling

Case Study: L101 -Fiber bits

Business Objective:

“Fiber Bits” is an internet service provider company. They are in the market from last 10 years. They lost almost 42% of their customers in last 3 years. Some new customers joined during the same time period. But, the company is concerned about the high attrition rate in the customer base. They want to get an idea on what are the main factors that lead to customer attrition.  To reduce the attrition rate, they have introduced vouchers and other benefits program. The objective is to identify the customers who are most likely to quit in next 2 years and try to retain them by offering free vouchers and benefits. 

Problem Statement and Scope of Model

The company has collected around 10000 customer historical data from last three years. We need to build a model that identifies the customers who are most likely to leave. We need to quantify the chance of attrition for each of the customer. The model will be used on the active customers. The free vouchers and benefits will be given to customers with higher probability to attrite in next three years. For example below are two customers, who is most likely to leave. Which customer should we try to retain by sending free vouchers
Customer
Cust1
Cust2
income
2586
1581
months_on_network
75
35
Num_complaints
4
3
number_plan_changes
1
2
relocated
1
0
monthly_bill
121
133
technical_issues_per_month
4
1
Speed_test_result
85%
95%

 Data:

The data consists of nearly 10,000 customers. Below are the list of variables and their descriptions.
Variable name
Description
active_cust
The Dependent variable
Active-1  (Customer Attrition=No)
Not Active – 0 (Customer Attrition=Yes)
income
Estimated monthly income
months_on_network
Months on network (Moths from the service start day))
Num_complaints
Total complaints till now
number_plan_changes
Number of times the service plan is changed
relocated
1- Relocated
0 – Not relocated
monthly_bill
Average monthly bill
technical_issues_per_month
Average monthly bill
Speed_test_result
Percent of (Actual speed/Promised speed)


Download data from below link


Analysis Steps

·         Data validation
·         Data cleaning
·         Identification of analysis technique
·         Building predictive model
·         Removing multicolliniarity
·         Final model
·         Calculating probabilities for cust-1 & cust-2
·         Final observations and inferences
·         Documentation of the approach, codes and results

Discussion forum

·         Facebook:
·         Blog :
·         Slide share

References:

·         Chapter -7 Data exploration& validation and Chapter -11 Logistic Regression from the book Practical Business Analytics Using SAS: A Hands-on Guide http://www.amazon.com/Practical-Business-Analytics-Using-Hands/dp/1484200446
·         SAS code from chapter-7 & Chapter-11 from the book Practical Business Analytics Using SAS: A Hands-on Guide http://www.amazon.com/Practical-Business-Analytics-Using-Hands/dp/1484200446
·       
         Case study id: Case Study: L101 -Fiber bits




Tuesday, January 27, 2015

Contents - Practical Business Analytics Using SAS: A Hands-on Guide



This book is basically a first course in analytics using SAS. Readers will get the basic foundational knowledge needed to be successful in the field. It has 13 chapters, each uniquely designed to develop a step-by-step understanding of the subject. Numerous real life examples are given with data and SAS code so that the readers, after completing this book, feel the comfortable on their assignments with actual business challenges. Here’s a rundown of the content in each chapter:
  • Chapter 1 starts with the basics of business analytics and some use cases to build a background for the upcoming chapters. We cover some of the most widely used analytical techniques. Next we move on to analytical tools including the most widely used analytics tool in technology today: SAS. 
  • Chapters 2, 3, and 4 impart the basic code-level knowledge in SAS software. In these chapters, we discuss the basics of SAS, followed by data handling in SAS, and, finally, important SAS functions and procedures. These chapters build the basic foundation in SAS software, which will be required throughout this book, while working with real life business scenarios on business analytics.
  • Chapters 5 and 6 offer the basics of statistics and simple descriptive statistical techniques. They are the foundation-building chapters in statistics.
  • Chapter 7 proceeds—since you have a solid foundation on the basics of statistics and SAS—to the lifecycle steps in analytics. Any analytical problem solving starts with data exploration, validation, and data cleaning. In this chapter, we document some of the most creative data-cleaning techniques used in the industry.
  • Chapter-8 is all about testing. Testing of hypotheses is a concept that is linked to many other statistical topics. In this chapter, we have explained the testing of hypothesis theory in very simple terms.
  • Chapter 9 begins the journey into advanced topics. The first step in predictive modeling is correlation and regression. We explain these concepts with abundant, real life examples.
  • Chapter 10 shows that regression is an ocean. We discuss multiple regressions in this chapter, as well as concepts like multicolliniarity and adjusted R-square.
  • Chapter 11 explains why logistic regression is a commonly used predictive modeling technique. In this chapter, we discuss model building using logistic regression.
  • Chapter 12 demonstrates time series analysis, along with its applications, as well as how to implement the ARIMA technique presented.
  • Chapter 13 is all about big data. Considering the exponential growth and popularity of the big data analytics domain, we felt that it would be appropriate to end this book with basics of big data. This final chapter gives the basics of big data with real-time data and worked-out examples, which demonstrates the code and use of Hadoop.